Once again, the Republic of Somalia finds itself in a political conundrum which threatens to undermine years of state-building efforts.

At the heart of the dispute is President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who is fast emerging as a polarising figure in Somali politics. On one hand, his opponents argue that his term expired in May 2026. However, the president has vehemently rejected these claims, insisting that constitutional amendments adopted through parliament extended the mandate of federal institutions, including the presidency, until May 2027.

This may sound like a classic African political story, but for Somalia, the crisis threatens to deepen divisions between the federal government and regional administrations, and complicate the country’s fight against the militant group Al-Shabaab.

The crisis, which initially stemmed from disagreements over electoral timelines and constitutional reforms, has grown into a wider contest over political legitimacy, the future of Somalia’s federal system, and its democratic transition.

The Origin of the Crisis

Dr Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was first elected as president in 2012, bringing hope for a better, corruption-free and peaceful Somalia.

After losing the 2017 elections, he made history as he was re-elected in 2022, ousting Mohammed Abdullahi Mohammed (Farmaajo). However, despite serving two terms, he is adamant about holding on to power, declaring that his term ends on May 15, 2027 and not May 15, 2026, as was previously agreed in the UK-U.S.-led peace talks in Halane.

Dr Mohamud was re-elected in May 2022 by legislators after a long-awaited election. The former president Abdullahi’s term had ended the previous year, causing a political crisis in the country. In 2021, Farmaajo, as he is popularly known, signed a law that extended his term for two years despite an outcry from the international community, which threatened sanctions.

However, two key states rejected this extension, and violence erupted, forcing people to flee their homes. Dr. Mohamud was among the most vocal voices opposing this move, saying it was a threat to their constitutional order. This stance contributed to his winning the 2022 election because he portrayed himself as a protector of the constitution, a striking contrast to his present actions. Consequently, Farmaajo agreed not to extend his term, not only because of the violence but also because of domestic and international pressure.

This cleared the path for new elections the following year, in which Mohamud emerged victorious. Mohamud’s supporters poured out into the streets, shooting their own unique kind of fireworks (gunshots) and celebrating Mohamud’s victory.

There was a flicker of hope that this new leader would be the solution to their problems, i.e., reduce or end Al Shabaab attacks, ease the effects of the harsh drought, fight corruption, and repair Somalia’s image in the eyes of the rest of the world.

While some people saw Dr Mohamud as the lesser of two evils, there was still some optimism. The incumbent conceded defeat, and the transition to power was smooth.

President Mohamud hails from the Hawiye tribe, one of the largest in Somalia. Somalia is ruled by a traditional system in which the larger tribes control politics under a 4.5 power-sharing model. Four major clans are allocated an equal number of parliamentary and government seats, with 0.5 left for the minority clans to share. He is the leader of the Union for Peace and the Democratic Party and takes a conciliatory stance.

One Person-One Vote Push

After former president Farmajo’s controversial electoral bill, which contradicted the constitution, was rejected, the parliamentary committee report emphasised that a one-person, one-vote election is not possible until the constitution is reviewed, the country is united, a citizenship law is prepared, the census is completed, and the boundaries of districts and regions are demarcated, Afyare Elmi, a professor at the City University of Mogadishu.

According to the committee, for all practical purposes, universal suffrage was not feasible in 2020, even though the Independent Election Commission claimed otherwise. The lower house of parliament accepted all the committee’s recommendations and prepared a new electoral law, which was enacted on 28 December 2019, thus creating a new reality on the ground. The upper chamber also passed this draft electoral law, and the president signed it into law in February 2020.

However, in 2025, Mogadishu residents went to the polls for the first time since 1969. Since this was a local election, it shows progress and may pave the way for a general election. There was heavy security deployed in the nation’s capital to ensure the process went smoothly, which it did.

However, there’s a concern as to whether the same would happen during a national election, should there be one. Al Shabaab has maintained control in large parts of the country, and it is feared that they would wreak havoc in the event of a national election.

According to Reuters, President Mohamud reached a deal in August with some opposition leaders stipulating that while lawmakers would be directly elected in 2026, the president would still be chosen by parliament. The opposition sees this move as a tactic by the President to get re-elected.

Constitutional amendments for personal gain?

After negotiations between the Federal Government and the Opposition, the two parties struck a deal and formed a coalition dubbed the National Salvation Forum. However, there was a split in the opposition within the Forum, which led to a split where some leaders wanted to continue supporting the Federal Government while others chose to oppose it. This worked for Dr Mohamud because he successfully managed to divide the formidable opposition. The constitution was amended and approved and some of the changes include:

• A semi-presidential system was established, where the country has both the office of the President and the Prime Minister.
• The President would be elected by members of the federal parliament and not through direct elections.
• One-person, one-vote elections aimed at replacing the clan-based indirect election model.
• Extension of the Presidential and Federal Parliament’s terms to five years, instead of four. This term is also applicable to the current office holders.

These changes brought about criticism from the splintered opposition, which calls itself the Somalia Future Council, rejected the amendments, claiming that the changes would delay the elections and guarantee a term extension for the president.

They also argued that the changes were illegal and threatened national stability, claiming they were an attempt to centralise power. The opposition further stated that the leadership did not fully involve federal member states.

They stated that proceeding without unanimity would worsen the already bad situation at a time when the country is at risk of famine and facing security and governance challenges.

According to the Somalia Guardian, the political disputes brought back painful memories of previous constitutional crises that pushed the country towards instability despite years of effort to rebuild state institutions following the civil war.

The president argued that the extension of power was a national necessity that would benefit the country. He also defended the one-person, one-vote system, citing that the previous system led to violence and fatalities.

This came despite mediation efforts by British and American diplomats at Halane in May, 2026. The discussions were unsuccessful mainly because it was felt that the President was unyielding. This led opposition leaders, together with Puntland and Jubbaland, to declare that they no longer recognise President Mohamud as the head of state because his constitutional authority had ended.

How the Dispute Strained Relations

Somalia’s federal system is a bit complex, to say the least. It is divided into five Federal Member States (FMS) comprising Puntland, Jubbaland, Galmudug, South West State and Hirshabelle. Each state has its own president and parliament. Power is divided among the FMS and the Federal Government based in Mogadishu. Somaliland declared its independence in 1991, making it autonomous, and is now called the Republic of Somaliland.

Tensions have escalated between the Federal Government of Somalia and the South-West State leadership, which has suspended cooperation with Mogadishu. Jubbaland’s President, who was elected for a third term, withdrew support for the Federal Government. The Federal Government took issue with this, resulting in clashes with Jubbaland. This clash had a ripple effect, heightening tensions with other FMS and opposition parties.

The forced constitutional changes have created mistrust between the member States and the Federal Government. There is concern that the pace of constitutional change is aimed at centralising power in Mogadishu rather than distributing it. This conflict is not isolated; it is actually heightened by the following, which are interconnected:

• Distribution of natural resources
• Allocation of international assistance
• Control of ports and strategic infrastructure
• Command of security institutions

This marks a risky period for the country, with no agreed path for the political transition. It therefore came as no surprise when armed clashes broke out between the opposition and state forces in Mogadishu in early June 2026.

Residences linked to former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire and former President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed were attacked.

‘Hassan Sheikh launched an attack on us with the intention of killing us, but that does not deter us, and we will not stop seeking legitimacy and holding credible elections in this country as soon as possible,’ Wrote Khaire on Facebook.

Global Efforts to Stabilise Somalia

The African Union Commission condemned the attacks and called for dialogue and for the cessation of all hostilities. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has called for peace to protect the country’s future: “At this critical moment, preserving peace, stability, national unity, and the gains made in Somalia’s state-building efforts is of paramount importance. IGAD urges all stakeholders to place the interests of the Somali people first and to pursue peaceful solutions through dialogue and consensus,” said H.E. Dr Workneh Gebeyehu, Executive Secretary of IGAD. There was a collaborative effort by the joint UN- Federal Government of Somalia- AU to promote peace in the region.

In a statement delivered by Stéphane Dujarric, Spokesman for the United Nations Secretary-General, the SG reiterated the urgent need for all stakeholders to resume talks to identify a way forward that avoids reversing the progress seen in Somalia to date and ensures the protection of civilians and civilian infrastructure.

However, AUSSOM has been dealt a major blow. The US has withdrawn funding for the UN Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS).

“The United States has provided nearly $2 billion in assessed contributions to UNSOS and its predecessor. .Despite this investment, Somalia has been unable to independently sustain progress that AUSSOM and its predecessor missions have made to degrade and contain Al-Shabaab or take ownership of most of its own security functions,” said a US State Department Spokesperson.

How the crisis affects the fight against Al-Shabaab

This political instability seems to be working in favour of Al Shabaab because attention is diverted from counter-terrorism efforts. The militant group has actually extended its hold over more parts of Somalia. It has increased its attacks, capitalising on the Somali Armed Forces’ resources being overstretched.

The militia group became so brazen in its attacks that it launched a foiled assassination attempt on President Mohamud in 2025.

This was the second attempt on his life, the first being in 2014. The Somali government’s counter-terrorism strategy has involved military operations supported by international backing from countries such as Türkiye, the U.K., and the U.S., as well as neighbouring countries like Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, Burundi, and Djibouti.

Al Shabaab is targeting Mogadishu. Neighbouring countries are also at risk of these increasing attacks; for example, Kenya was attacked in 2025. The militants attacked Mandera and Garissa counties.

A call to action

Somalia faces myriad complex problems, and the systems in place are not working. With its delicate political system and health and food crises, Somalia cannot handle a political crisis. History has shown that violence is usually the result of failed dialogue, and considering the current poor state of the nation, it would be unfair to subject the citizens to unnecessary warfare.

For the sake of peace, it will definitely benefit the country if the current government and the opposition reach a consensus.

This quote by George Santayana eerily lingers: “Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”