Billiamu Usman stands silently before the ruins of what used to be a busy family compound, once home to nearly 50 members of his extended family in Mokwa, Niger State. The morning air is cool, but his clothes are still damp. A man around his age walks up and places a steady hand on his shoulder as Usman bends to sift through what little the flood spared: a bent cooking pot, two soaked exercise books, and a cracked lantern.

Mokwa has seen flooding before, but the one on 28 May 2025 was different. “It was as if the sky opened and refused to close,” Usman says quietly, still staring at the debris.

 After days of relentless rain, a railway embankment, almost as high as a one-storey building, gave way. The structure had served as a barrier, holding back a nearby river, and then it collapsed, sweeping everything in its path.

The government said that the flooding claimed about  200 lives, with at least  1000 persons missing.

The flood in Mokwa was another scene in Nigeria’s climate disaster story. In 2022, Nigeria experienced one of the deadliest floods in its history, which affected about 4.4 million people. And at COP30 in Brazil, this was the backdrop that Vice President Kashim Shettima carried with him when he addressed world leaders, insisting that Nigeria’s climate struggle must be understood as both a local emergency and a global responsibility. As Africa’s largest economy and most populous nation positions itself as a continental climate champion, many ask whether diplomatic goals can translate into tangible protection for communities like Mokwa before the next flood arrives.

A Nation Facing Multiple Climate Threats

Nigeria is also one of the continent’s most climate-exposed nations—ranking among the world’s 10 most vulnerable countries to climate change, according to global risk assessments. Each year, floods sweep through communities from Bayelsa to Adamawa, destroying homes and farmlands. In the country’s North, the expansion of the Sahara desert is pushing pastoralists farther into Nigeria’s middle belt and opening up a new front for conflict.

“The shifts are driving increasing competition for resources between farmers and herders,” says Malik Samuel, a senior researcher at Good Governance Africa-Nigeria, adding that the pressure has intensified “encroachment on traditional pastoralist areas,” fueling tensions that were once local but are now widespread.

For many families, climate change translates into hunger and the loss of land they have depended on for generations. About 6.9 million  Nigerians were pushed into acute food insecurity in 2024, and disruptions to farming cycles worsened this. Nigeria’s disaster response agency, the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), reported that more than 433,578 people have been affected by flooding in 2025 alone, with thousands displaced.

These pressures ripple into every sector. Food prices soar when floods destroy crops. Stagnant post-flood waters drive spikes in malaria and waterborne diseases. Roads crack and collapse under extreme rainfall, slowing trade and isolating rural communities from markets.

Progress amid persistent gaps

At home, Nigeria has introduced several policies meant to slow the tide of climate-driven devastation. In 2015, the government launched the Nigeria Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Policy, setting a target of generating 30 percent of the country’s electricity from renewable sources by 2030. Yet the road there is still far. Africa’s top oil exporter still cannot provide reliable electricity to about 92 million people, while those connected to the grid experience constant blackouts.

To cope, Nigerians collectively spend about $14 billion each year on diesel and petrol for generators. These machines keep households and businesses afloat, but they also blanket cities with pollution and deepen the country’s emissions burden.

Still, some progress is visible. The policy has helped drive the growth of solar mini-grids in off-grid communities, especially in the Northeast and Northcentral. These installations have brought electricity to thousands of households that previously had none, though the coverage is still far below national needs.

The government’s Energy Transition Plan aims to expand renewable capacity and reduce reliance on generators, while the National Climate Change Policy Framework offers broader guidance for adaptation and mitigation across sectors. In flood-prone states, hydrological early-warning systems have been strengthened, with the Nigerian Hydrological Services Agency improving forecasting that has already saved lives in high-risk areas.

Nigeria has also taken steps to slow desertification through the Great Green Wall initiative, planting millions of trees across northern states, and has recorded some success in halting desert encroachment in targeted zones. Through the Climate-Smart Agriculture Program, farmers are being introduced to drought-resistant crops and improved irrigation systems. Thousands have benefited, though demand for the program still far exceeds its current capacity. The government has also expanded the National Emergency Management Agency’s disaster-response capabilities and established the Climate Change Council to coordinate action across federal ministries.

Vice President Shettima mentioned some of these efforts in Brazil, presenting them as evidence of Nigeria’s determination. He spoke about the expansion of climate-resilient infrastructure, the promotion of clean-cooking solutions to reduce deforestation, and the country’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution, which includes commitments to cut emissions by 20 percent unconditionally and up to 47 percent with international support by 2030, as well as restoring four million hectares of degraded land.

Also, the progress on the ground has been uneven, and the distance between policy and implementation remains stark. Funding gaps, political turnover, bureaucratic delays, and weak coordination across states often slow execution. In Mokwa, for instance, the government had announced plans to tackle erosion in the community in 2024, but that never materialized. Many communities share the same story: plans exist, but they move too slowly for families who face yearly devastation, losing homes and loved ones to floods that better infrastructure might have prevented.

In addition, environmental groups argue that climate policies remain too centralized, leaving rural communities without a say in decisions that affect them. Aisha Farida Aminu, co-founder of the Think Green Foundation, a non-profit that works on climate change, told participants at the Nigeria Health Watch Future of Youth pre-conference that Nigeria needs a climate plan that is genuinely holistic and inclusive. “Designing a hospital isn’t solely an architect’s responsibility,” she said. “Health workers and the people who will use the facility must also participate in the process.” Her message was clear: climate strategies should not only originate in Abuja but be shaped by the people who live with the impacts every day.

For many communities, adaptation is already happening informally. Farmers are shifting their planting calendars, women’s groups are building makeshift river embankments, and youth volunteers are clearing clogged drainage channels. These grassroots efforts matter, but they remain small compared to the scale of the challenge and rarely receive government support.

Yet at COP30, Shettima insisted that Nigeria’s geography, “from the Sahelian plains in the north to the mangroves of the Niger Delta,” reflects not just vulnerability but also “nature’s generosity” and a reminder of the nation’s “responsibility to preserve what sustains us.”

Regional Leadership and Climate Diplomacy

Nigeria’s size gives it influence across West Africa, and in recent years, it has leaned into that role with confidence. The government has led conversations within the Economic Community of West African States about climate migration, regional energy cooperation, and the need for shared early-warning systems.

Nigeria has also promoted a collective African voice on climate finance, demanding that high-emitting nations meet promised contributions. The argument was simple: Africa’s emissions are the lowest globally, yet its burden is the heaviest. At COP30, Shettima built on this, urging world leaders to scale up loss-and-damage funding and stressing that African countries cannot continue to “suffer silently while contributing the least to global warming.”

“Nigeria asserts that Africa’s voice must not echo as a cry of vulnerability, but as a chorus of innovation,” Shettima told the COP30 assembly. “Our continent is rich in renewable resources, biodiversity, and youthful ingenuity. I hereby say with absolute certainty that we are not the problem; we are an integral part of the solution.”

He emphasized that Africa has the potential to lead in multiple areas: “Carbon capture through forests, in renewable energy expansion, in digital monitoring of emissions, and in regional cooperation that translates ambition into prosperity.”

His speech reinforced Nigeria’s role as a bridge, a country able to speak to Africa’s realities while negotiating confidently on the global stage.

On climate finance, Shettima called for “a reliable and equitable architecture that recognises the unique realities of developing nations and empowers them to deliver on global commitments.” Nigeria welcomed “the operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund” but urged partners “to ensure its accessibility to the most climate-vulnerable nations.”

The message was clear: Nigeria is acting, but cannot carry the burden alone. Adaptation requires predictable funding, and emission cuts require fair technological access. Nigeria’s regional leadership is earning recognition, positioning the country as a voice that can articulate African priorities in international forums where developing nations have historically been marginalized.

What Stakeholders Say About Nigeria’s Climate Path

Opinions differ on how far Nigeria has truly come in its climate journey. Environmental non-governmental organizations praise the government for taking stronger positions at global negotiations and highlight improvements in early-warning systems and a growing focus on renewable energy.

Climate activists, however, argue that implementation remains slow and heavily dependent on international funds that arrive irregularly. “Climate change is a life or death matter and should not be seen as an opportunity for politicking or for economic speculation,” Nnimo Bassey, a Nigerian environmental activist, told Mongabay.

Community leaders want more direct engagement. Farmers in Benue say they hear about national policies but rarely see representatives who understand their struggles. Ngizan Chahul, president of the Association of Women Farmers, said climate-induced conflict has caused significant disruption in local food chains and led to rising food prices. “When demand is high, and the product is not available due to the farmers displaced due to insecurity, what do you think will happen?”

Flood-prone communities along the River Niger insist that adaptation cannot remain a long-term promise—it must be felt before the next rainy season. International partners, including multilateral organizations, continue to call for better climate data, stronger institutional coordination, and clearer accountability mechanisms.

Yet despite these gaps, many stakeholders agree that Nigeria is moving slowly, but steadily, toward a more structured climate response. However, they insist that there is a need for more urgency, as closing the gap between policy and lived experience requires not only international financing but also political will.