For many, the journey here has been marked not only by violence but also by hunger and loss. Even so, uncertainty looms, because the war shows no sign of coming to an end. What began as a power struggle between two generals in April 2023 has now degenerated into one of Africa\u2019s most devastating and complex crises, is redrawing the map of Northeast Africa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) enter their fourth year of relentless combat, the question that lingers is no longer just who will lead Sudan, but whether a unified Sudan can survive at all. Years after the outbreak of the civil war, Sudan has become the site of one of Africa\u2019s most devastating and complex humanitarian catastrophes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What began as a confrontation between two opposing military factions has now deteriorated into a protracted, deeply destabilising conflict that is fragmenting the country and drawing in both regional and international interests. Sudan now stands not only as a nation at war, but as the epicentre of a wider and increasingly volatile regional crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Civilian and Democratic Movements Crushed<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The deadlock has been sustained, in part, by a steady flow of external support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n At the centre of this conflict remains a deadly contest between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, leader of the SAF, and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, widely known as Hemedti, who commands the RSF. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The irony is that the two generals once cooperated to lead a military coup in October 2021, overthrowing the transitional government that came to power in the wake of the 2019 removal of longtime ruler Omar al-Bashir following a mass uprising across the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Many Sudanese see the SAF as a sovereign army fighting a legitimate battle against a rebel group that has been backed to the hilt by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), allowing it to tear through large parts of the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Others, however, still see the two groups as part of the same oppressive system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n To them, both groups are military actors with foreign patrons who seek to crush civilian and democratic movements while furthering their corporate interests and increasing their hold over Sudanese life.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Over time, however, the war has assumed the contours of a de facto partition. To date, the SAF faction has retained control over the capital city, Khartoum and much of eastern Sudan, presenting itself as the legitimate national authority. The RSF, which increasingly functions as a parallel power structure, dominates Darfur and large parts of the west.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Human Cost of War<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Sudan, once a single nation-state, has now splintered into competing zones of military control. Civilian governance has been pushed to the margins and replaced by armed authority and territorial disputes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Despite repeated attempts to establish a ceasefire and multiple diplomatic ini00tiatives, peace has remained persistently out of reach. The reasons are as entrenched as they are complex. Neither side has shown any genuine willingness to accept compromise, and both remain committed to securing dominance rather than negotiating coexistence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The human cost of that intransigence has been immense, with more than 150,000 people estimated to have been killed. In contrast, over 12 million others have been displaced, making Sudan the site of the largest displacement crisis in the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For those still trapped inside the country, survival has become an increasingly precarious daily struggle. Sudan\u2019s health system has all but collapsed, with an estimated 70 per cent of health infrastructure destroyed or rendered inoperable. Millions of Sudanese are now exposed not only to the immediate dangers of war but also to outbreaks of preventable diseases such as cholera.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Persistent Human Rights Violation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n UN agencies across the region have reported that serious human rights violations have persisted, including massacres, forced recruitment and arbitrary arrests. Women and girls remain particularly vulnerable to conflict-related sexual violence, often while attempting to flee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In March, Doctors Without Borders, an international medical NGO known by its French initials MSF, reported widespread use of sexual violence as a weapon in the ongoing war. The NGO pointed out that at least 3,396 survivors of sexual violence sought treatment in MSF-supported health facilities across North and South Darfur between January 2024 and November 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cMy baby girl was born prematurely because the war forced us to flee from Omdurman while I was pregnant,\u201d Ferdos Salih, mother of an 11-month-old baby who is receiving treatment for measles and severe acute malnutrition in El Geneina teaching hospital, in West Darfur, is quoted by MSF.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n \u201cShe has suffered a lot with repeated hospitalisation. Also, because of the war, she couldn’t get vaccinated.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n The RSF, in particular, has been accused of carrying out gender-based violence, with one investigation finding that in 87 per cent of verified incidents, the perpetrators were RSF fighters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to a United Nations refugee agency representative in Sudan, Marie-Helene Verney, since the start of the conflict about 4.4 million people have crossed borders, mainly into Chad, South Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The destruction of hospitals, clinics, and public health systems has enabled cholera and other diseases to spread unchecked. At the same time, famine conditions have deepened as front lines cut through agricultural land, disrupting planting cycles, and severing access to food supplies. Millions are now on the brink of starvation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cUnfortunately, we are not seeing clear progress towards any resolution,\u201d Verney said in a statement.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n Why Peace Remains Elusive<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Ceasefire attempts have repeatedly unraveled because neither al-Burhan nor Hemedti appears willing to accept a subordinate role in any future political arrangement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Both the SAF and the RSF have accused foreign governments and regional actors of fueling the conflict to advance strategic interests in the region, transforming what began as a domestic power struggle into a proxy battlefield.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Diplomatic initiatives, too, have often been viewed with suspicion. A notable example was the January 2024 meeting between President William Ruto of Kenya and RSF representative, Hemedti, at State House in Nairobi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Though presented as a mediation effort, it was interpreted by the SAF as conferring legitimacy on a paramilitary force widely accused of war crimes, thereby further undermining trust and delaying meaningful negotiations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Canada recently joined the bandwagon calling for a ceasefire in Sudan while expressing grave concerns about the escalating crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cCanada is gravely concerned by the escalating crisis in Sudan. Starvation is being used as a weapon, civilians are being targeted, and women and girls face widespread violence,\u201d Canada\u2019s Minister of Foreign Affairs Anita Anand said.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n \u201cToday, we are announcing over $120 million to deliver urgent, life-saving support to those affected. Humanitarian aid must reach those in need safely and without obstruction,\u201d she added.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n Besides that, a primary mediation effort has been led by the \u201cQuad,\u201d comprising the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE, which has focused on aligning external actors to reduce arms flows and pressure the warring parties to reach a ceasefire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n External Influence in the War in Sudan<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n But the UAE has also been accused of supporting the RSF, a claim the Middle East country vehemently denies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In 2025, Sudan filed a case against the Arab state at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), accusing it of \u201ccomplicity in genocide\u201d committed by the RSF against the Masalit community in the West Darfur state. The UAE has also rejected new allegations cited in a 2026 Reuters News Agency report that it financed and supported a training camp in Ethiopia for the RSF.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe UAE categorically rejects allegations that it has provided, financed, transported or facilitated any weapons, ammunition, drones, vehicles, guided munitions or other military equipment to the RSF, whether directly or indirectly,\u201d said a senior UAE official.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n In a statement, Saudi Arabia, a key backer of Sudan\u2019s government, further condemned what it called \u201cforeign interference in the conflict, including the \u201ccontinued influx of illegal weapons, mercenaries and foreign fighters\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The statement by the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, did not name the alleged foreign actors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the African Union (AU) have also engaged in diplomatic initiatives to unite opposing Sudanese political factions and facilitate a political settlement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But those initiatives have so far failed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Regional Crisis Unfolding<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The countries surrounding Sudan were already barely managing to cope with mass displacement before the war, which is just the latest in a series of conflicts and periods of instability stretching back to the 2003 Darfur crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The UN reports these countries are already hosting large refugee and internally displaced populations and their humanitarian programmes are severely underfunded. Moreover, those leaving Sudan are arriving in remote locations, which makes it difficult to get access to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Chad and Egypt have received the biggest numbers: as of mid-2025, Egypt was hosting around 600,000 Sudanese, and in Chad over 700,000 had been registered with the Chadian government, estimating that this number could increase. As of early 2026, Kenya was hosting a large refugee population, with the vast majority of them (approximately 24.5 per cent of the 850,000 registered refugees) coming from neighbouring South Sudan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The refugees primarily reside at the Kakuma camp, along with refugees from Sudan, fleeing the war that has devastated their country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In 2016, UNHCR and the Kenyan National and County Governments established the Kalobeyei Integrated Settlement to decongest the Kakuma refugee camp and promote socio-economic integration with the host community.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Over the years, influxes have been driven by conflict, persecution and food insecurity, but also the consequences of climate change, including both drought and floods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The UNHCR works closely with the Government\u2019s Department of Refugee Services (DRS), the County Government of Turkana and the national police service, as well as more than 40 implementing and operational partners and sister UN agencies, including development and private actors, to provide protection and assistance to refugees, asylum-seekers and the host community.<\/p>\n\n\n\n While the DRS is responsible for the management and coordination of refugee affairs, with technical support from UNHCR, it has been accused of abandoning the very refugees it is tasked with protecting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cRefugees are going back to South Sudan. About 800 refugees from Sudan have opted to walk to South Sudan despite the ongoing war because the DRS is not registering refugees\u201d a representative working with the refugees in Kenya exclusively told Open African Tribune.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe refugees are being arrested and put in custody. I have court cases going on of refugees who were arrested in Nairobi,\u201d they added, having just come out of a court hearing.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n According to this source, host countries are not managing refugees to their full capacity, and Kenya is no exception. They added that the DRS office in Nairobi is not operational and so unable to register refugees effectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On the other hand, UNHCR offices have also become inaccessible to refugees as they were moved from their initial location and sought protection behind the high-security walls of the United Nations offices in Nairobi\u2019s high-end Gigiri area. Now, refugees attempting to access the offices are arrested and detained by the UN security officials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cKenya is only gathering intelligence information from refugees but not offering humanitarian aid. Refugees are not getting assigned food rations, forcing young women and girls into prostitution,\u201d said the distraught representative.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n Indifference by International Communities<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n By mid-2026, the scale of Sudan\u2019s collapse is stark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The tragedy is made even more striking by the contrast between Sudan\u2019s past promise and its present ruin. Long regarded as a country with the potential to become a breadbasket for Africa, Sudan possesses vast agricultural land, significant mineral wealth, and substantial gold reserves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n That promise has now been destroyed. The war has not only halted production, it has triggered near-total economic collapse. Markets have emptied, the currency has deteriorated, and the country\u2019s developmental potential is being buried beneath the wreckage of its own cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Perhaps most damning is the perception that Sudan has been met with indifference by much of the international community. While other global crises continue to dominate diplomatic attention and media coverage, Sudan\u2019s disintegration has too often been treated as peripheral.<\/p>\n\n\n\n David Miliband, International Rescue Committee (IRC)\u2019s CEO and President, said,<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe Iran War must not blind us to the ongoing catastrophe in Sudan – the world\u2019s largest humanitarian crisis. After three years of war, it is not only the world\u2019s largest humanitarian crisis, but also the starkest proof yet of the devastating cost of the New World Disorder and international neglect.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n As per the CEO, diplomacy has failed, international law is violated with impunity and rampant war. Economies and support from regional actors drive violence, causing record-breaking civilian suffering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cDespite efforts by some donors to protect humanitarian funding, the humanitarian response in Sudan has been decimated at a time when millions face hunger, displacement, and endemic levels of conflict-related sexual violence. With reverberations of the conflict in Iran, the risk of further deterioration is real and present. The international community cannot afford to treat Sudan as a distant crisis- it is a mirror held up to a world that is failing the test of collective action.”<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n That neglect has created space for outside actors to pursue their own interests, deepening the conflict rather than helping to resolve it, and leaving the Sudanese population to bear the consequences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Light at The End of The Tunnel?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n As of 2026, Sudan\u2019s war is not nearing its conclusion, as reports indicate, at least 700 civilians have been killed in drone strikes in the first quarter of 2026 alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The war is widening in scope, deepening in consequence, and becoming more difficult to contain. In December 2025, the Prime Minister of Sudan, Kamil Idris, visited the United Nations Security Council to present the Hope Government\u2019s vision for peace in Sudan, which was launched to carve a path through the stone and find a way out of the country’s war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Hope Government initiative called for a comprehensive ceasefire under joint supervision by international and regional institutions, along with the assembly of the rebel militia in agreed and designated locations. It also called for facilitating the voluntary return of displaced people and refugees to their regions, accompanied by humanitarian aid to those in need.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The initiative also proposed a model of transitional justice that balances forgiveness and reconciliation, while ensuring that those involved in war crimes are not granted immunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Hope Government initiative addresses the political track in depth in order to reach an elected government that reflects the will of the Sudanese people, following a Sudanese-Sudanese dialogue focused on how Sudan should be governed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThis war would not have reached its fourth year and caused all these tragedies and losses without major regional support, which came as part of a broader conspiracy to plunder Sudan\u2019s resources and seize control of its national decision-making,\u201d he writes.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n \u201cAlthough the war in Sudan has now lasted more than 1,100 days, we chose not to wait for the war to end before beginning reconstruction. We now carry tools of construction in one hand and the bullets that protect our nation and people in the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n According to the prime minister, despite these hardships, inflation indicators have declined month after month, reaching around 55 per cent last February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is noted as a significant improvement given that inflation had reached 359 per cent in 2021, even though there was no war at the time and neither were there harsh blockades on the Sudanese economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cDespite these difficulties, we have managed to raise gold production to around 70 tonnes a year, the highest level during the years of war,\u201d he adds.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n Peace remains elusive in part because the war has become not only politically but also economically advantageous for those directing it, while proving catastrophic for the civilians forced to endure it. <\/strong>Without a fundamental shift in international pressure and a genuine willingness from both the SAF and the RSF to place civilian survival above military ambition and territorial control, Sudan will remain a nation trapped in an ever-expanding cycle of violence, fragmentation, and human suffering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The year 2026 is a grim milestone for Sudan as it marks three years of war. Families have been huddling in makeshift shelters in crowded displacement camps near the Sudan-Chad border, holding onto the remains of what would have been their lives. Food in the displacement campsis scarce, and even worse, the availability of clean […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":126,"featured_media":7119,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"saved_in_kubio":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[30,25,28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7100","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-governance","category-security","category-society"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/openafricantribune.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7100","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/openafricantribune.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/openafricantribune.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/openafricantribune.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/126"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/openafricantribune.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7100"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/openafricantribune.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7100\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7120,"href":"https:\/\/openafricantribune.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7100\/revisions\/7120"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/openafricantribune.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7119"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/openafricantribune.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7100"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/openafricantribune.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7100"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/openafricantribune.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7100"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
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