Tanzania has found itself in the middle of a strategic contest to control the Indian Ocean by the world’s greatest powers.
The country sits at the junction of East Africa and the Western Indian Ocean, making it valuable to suitors like the US, Russia and China.
For context, the Western Indian Ocean region covers the coastal and marine areas of East Africa spanning Somalia in the North and South Africa to the South.
It includes four Island nations; Madagascar, Seychelles, Comoros, and Mauritius and covers coastal zones of of 10 nations bounded by the Indian Ocean eastwards.
The USA in Tanzania
The United States of America views Tanzania as an important partner in enhancing maritime security in the East African Coast and Western Indian Ocean region.
On the surface, the agenda is to strengthen security cooperation between the two countries and combating mutual threats like piracy and human trafficking.
On 20-21 February 2025, Lt. Gen. John Brennan, the Deputy Commander of AFRICOM flew into Tanzania and held a number of high-level meetings with Gen. Jacob John Mkunda, Tanzania’s Chief of Defence, as well as other military leaders.
Security cooperation and deepening of the institutional ties between the two militaries were top on the agenda.
The exercise focuses on bolstering maritime security and cooperation in the strategic waters of the Eastern African Coast and Western Indian Ocean.
It brought together 19 partner and allied nations in what Brennan described as improving maritime law enforcement capacity, promoting national and regional security and increasing interoperability between participating nations.
“We see Tanzania as a key strategic partner in East Africa; an anchor of security and stability,” Brennan said during a meeting with Gen. Mkunda on February 21.
AFRICOM said the exercise facilitated the testing of new awareness technologies for changing maritime domain.
At the end of his Tanzanian visit, Brennan presided over the closing ceremony of Exercise Cutlass Express in Seychelles.
In ordinary geopolitics this is routine, but diplomatically, it emphasised the presence of the US in East Africa at large.
A year later, AFRICOM led Justified Accord 2026, its largest annual multinational exercise in East Africa,which took place in Djibouti, Kenya and Tanzania.
Open Africa Tribune understands that the US Army Southern European Task Force, Africa, (SETAF-AF) led the exercise that integrated at least 1,500 personnel from Tanzania, Kenya, Djibouti, the US and several other nations.
Justified Accord 2026
According to AFRICOM, the Justified Accord 2026 exercise was aimed at building readiness, strengthen regional security and regional partnerships.
US Army Lt. Col. Jason Fernandez, the SETAF-AF branch chief said the exercise that continued to March 13 was designed to strengthen cooperation and advance regional security by enabling partner-led security operations against shared counterterrorism threats.
He said it served as a top innovation hub in East Africa to validate new technologies in strict environments.
“Justified Accord’s true strength lies in our partners taking the lead. We embody the principle of burden sharing and this creates a powerful, partner-led security network capable of shouldering the responsibility for a stable and prosperous East Africa,” Fernandez explained.
While in Kenya the activities focused on enhancing a joint command and control, in Tanzania, the Justified Accord’s focus was on global force projection and joint readiness for crisis response, according to the US Department of War.
Tanzania’s exercise featured bilateral field training on jungle warfare and counter-improvised explosive devices, alongside a medical readiness exercise to support local communities and increase US medical readiness.
“During the two-week exercise, the US military trained side-by-side with Tanzania People’s Defence Force (TPDF) counterparts to build medical readiness, increase cybersecurity, and strengthen crisis response,” SETAF announced.
SETAF disclosed that the partnership was anchored on the newest State Partnership Program between the Nebraska National Guard, of the US and Tanzania.
These distinguished yet relatable approaches highlighted each country’s unique needs and mutuality with the US.
Kenya’s exercise included a multinational live-fire exercise, command post exercise, air-to-ground integration and defensive cyber operations in Nairobi and Isiolo.
Partners in the exercise included AFRICOM, US Air Forces in Europe and Air Forces Africa, US Embassy Tanzania, Army Medicine, US Army, The National Guard and the US Army Europe and Africa.
“A thriving defense ecosystem powered by our war fighters and commercial innovators from the U.S. and our partners will make us a resilient joint force,” Fernandez explained.
Tanzania’s share of the Indian Ocean
Tanzania has 1,400 kilometres of the Indian Ocean Coastline and millions of coastal families sustained by fishing.
This makes maritime insecurity a real threat to its economy.
Tanzania’s cooperation with the US and partners helps it to secure its coastline and protect its economic interests and industries.
To Tanzania, working with AFRICOM is beyond abstract geopolitical concerns and a real issue that requires practical solutions.
During the Cutlass Express 2026 edition, the U.S. deployed modern technology including a solar-powered unmanned surface vehicle and an interceptor drone with a modular payload designed for long-endurance missions.
Washington in its strategic cooperation with actors of interest, has been embedding its technological system into militaries’ operational habits as a way of improving outcomes in dealing with potential threats.
The US commitment to strengthen ties with Tanzania and East Africa also comes at a time China, Russia and other world powers are seeking to increase economic and other influence in the region.
The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is a critical artery for maritime energy where at least 80 percent of the world’s seaborne oil trade passes through its waters.
According to The Blue Economy Handbook of the IOR, the region accounts for 42 percent of global crude oil that passes through its routes and holds over 50 percent of the world’s proven oil and gas reserves.
Control or influence within this maritime space comes with enormous strategic value.
Counter-terrorism Threats in East Africa
Al-Shabaab, a militant group with deep roots in Somalia and documented appetite to expand to Kenya and Tanzania offers a visible defensible justification for America’s military presence in East Africa.
Despite this, observers have pointed to a calculation beyond the fight against terrorism.
China, Russia Effect
The scramble for East Africa by US, China and Russia is becoming clear by day.
Russia and China have been systematically expanding their footprint in Africa.
The US Department of Warbelieves China has considered military bases in 13 countries in Africa including Angola, Kenya, Seychelles and Tanzania.
According to the US Foreign Policy Research Institute, between 2017 and 2021, China exported three times as many weapons to sub-Saharan Africa as did the US.
Tanzania received over 90 percent of their arms from China in that period.
Tanzania the Neutral Player
Tanzania is historically a fence sitter, never taking sides in foreign policy since the days of first president Mzee Julius Nyerere.
Under President Samia Suluhu, this tradition came to play when Tanzania hosted China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi few days before Brennan’s visit.
In 2024, Tanzania and Russia elevated their diplomatic ties through a new dedicated commission on trade and economic cooperation, placing investments in the fertiliser and gas industries at the forefront of Moscow’s agenda.
While the US is big on strategic military cooperation, Russia has been strengthening military cooperation and enhancing resource extraction through private entities.
In February 2023, six warships -three from China, two Russia and one from South Africa met in the Indian Ocean waters and conducted drills for 10 days.
Critics equated the drills to the endorsement of Kremlin’s onslaught on Ukraine as it fell within days of the one year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
China’s trade with Africa has steadily risen in the recent decades from $1.75 billion in 1992 to $251 billion in 2021. In 2009, China surpassed the US to become Africa’s largest bilateral trading partner.
Dr Harrison Mwilima, a Tanzanian-born, independent lecturer and expert in Europe-Africa Relations residing in Germany observed that such cooperations are mutually benefitting to involved countries.
What US gains from Tanzania
According to Mwilima, while AFRICOM helps the US to gain access to the Indian Ocean, Tanzania and other East African countries benefit diplomatically and increase military capacity through events like Exercise Cutlass Express.
“The Indian Ocean is a big energy and trade corridor , especially now with the situation in Iran that forced some ships to pass through the Southern part of Africa. It’s also prone to piracy and terrorism issues close to Somalia hence a strategic security strengthening point for the US,” Mwilima explained.
The cross-continental relations enthusiast argued that the cooperation between the US and East African countries was more about security interests and strategic geopolitical concerns.
Transactional Partnerships
“Tanzania helps the US increase access to the Indian Ocean and in return it gains top notch military training, access to equipment, surveillance techniques and security intelligence from the US,” he added.
The East African countries that participated in Exercise Cutlass Express not only get to strengthen their maritime security, but enjoy diplomatic prestige for working with the US.
“For East Africa there’s that prestige that comes with working with such powerful actors ,” Mwilima pointed out.
The expert did not rule out that the US was also strategically limiting access to East Africa by other powerful actors like China, Russia, Turkey and the Middle East which have shown interest in the region.
“China has increased its economic influence in the region and even set up a military base in Djibouti. They are also involved in mega infrastructure projects in the region and the US would want to limit this influence as it increases its access,” Mwilima expounded.
He acknowledged that Russia took has significant military influence in Africa with several African countries buying arms and having diplomatic military engagements with the European country.
“The US wants to limit this through security operations and getting access to sea lines used by other global actors. It doesn’t want to miss out on activities taking place there,” added the scholar.
He reiterated that East African countries that received more support from the US would automatically enjoy more diplomatic influence and prestige thus feel superior.
However, he differed with the assumption that such cooperations would influence politics in the East African countries like Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya.
“Politics are different and are influenced by many other things like historical connections and internal politics. The region’s politics are unique and would hardly be affected by countries’ cooperation with the US,” Mwilima detailed.
He added that in case of a conflict between two East African countries that are in cooperation with the US, the latter would exploit its diplomatic privileges to pursue amicable resolution rather than take sides.
Mwilima’s views are distinct from those of Morris Odhiambo, a scholar at the University of Nairobi (UoN) Department of Diplomacy and International Studies,.
“The old paradigm of security cooperation encouraged militarism and weapons stockpiling and privileging strategic and geopolitical interests of big powers. The war in Iran should be the first lesson to African leaders that military cooperation are never meant to secure African populations and resources,” Odhiambo argued.
While Odhiambo sees such cooperations as one-sided and only beneficial to the US, Mwilima holds that both actors gain something and lose something, as is in any other mutual relationship.
“Everybody gets something. The US gets access to the region without going through a colonisation process. Tanzania gets equipment , training, surveillance systems and diplomatic influence from engaging with the US,” stated Mwilima.
He observed that the downside of such cooperations would push smaller countries to align their needs and foreign policies to Washington’s position on the United Nations General Assembly to safeguard their partnerships.
“The US gains more but the East African region gains too. We live in a global world where those with power have more influence to start relationships and pursue interests,” Mwilima added.
Concerning the longevity of such ties, Mwilima said they are dependent on global stability and interests.
According to him, the intensity of the cooperations would depend on whether the East African region would remain to be of strategic importance to the US and if not, how to proceed without giving advantage to Russia, China, Turkey and Gulf countries interested in the region.
“In such scenarios, the US would not exit but limit its engagements to few issues like training and logistical support, carefully not opening doors for other powerful actors,” Mwilima opined.
